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Coronavirus - the new strain III

Discussion in 'off topic' started by jackbarron, Mar 18, 2020.

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  1. jackbarron

    jackbarron Chelsea, London

    Above is what Richard Horton, the editor of The Lancet, has witten in The Guardian. He is a qualified surgeon and The Lancet is "among the world's oldest, most prestigious, and best known general medical journals."

    "The warnings from China and Italy were loud and clear," he says. "But politicians and their advisers wasted valuable time – and lives will be lost as a result."

    After what happened with Sars, the Chinese clamped down immediately when Covid-19 cases started coming through in Wuhan. They warned that the mortality rate was high and the virus had pandemic potential. People in China were dying from viral pneumonia brought on by Covid-19.

    "But medical and scientific advisers to the UK government ignored their warnings. For unknown reasons they waited. And watched ...

    "After weeks of inaction, the government announced a sudden U-turn on Monday, declaring that new modelling by scientists at Imperial College had convinced them to change their initial plans.

    "Many journalists, led by the BBC, reported that “the science had changed” and so the government had responded accordingly. But this interpretation of events is wrong. The science has been the same since January. What changed is that government advisers at last understood what had really taken place in China."

    Richard Horton says when the system returns to normal difficult questions will have to be asked. The UK can't afford to fail again, because we may not have a second chance.

    I'd argue the Covid-19 pandemic is a political issue around the world as much a health one. Trump calling it the Chinese virus today is an example.

    So is the way Johnson and his government have been handling it, given how slow they have been to clamp down or test in face of evidence from around the world.

    The Tory government are giving £316 billion in loans and grants to save businesses, but they still haven't come up with a solution for the many who have already lost their jobs.

    £73 a week on Universal Credit and £94 on sickness benefit won't go very far. It also takes six weeks to get Universal Credit.

    That's the reaity of what the Tory Party, Labour and the Lib-Dems, have left us with.

    Last edited: Mar 19, 2020
  2. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    People do have some inbuilt immune response to viral attacks, you just have to hope that it kicks in rapidly enough. It seems that it does in the majority of people thankfully
    ian r likes this.
  3. mandryka

    mandryka pfm Member

    There may be an obvious answer to this and if so, I'm sorry. Can someone explain to me why the number of cases peaks? I mean, why is the graph a sombrero? Why doesn't it go on until heard immunity is reached?

    Is it because of its expected behaviour in Summer weather? Or is it just because of social distancing? Or because of heard immunity? Or what?

    And why will there be subsequent cycles?
  4. Woodface

    Woodface pfm Member

    Ha, ha, but at least they can send their kids to school;) Teachers actually only get paid for the days they work, their salary doesn’t cover holidays. In actuality they may be able to roster teachers some time off if the number of kids in school drops. Let’s be honest, no one is going to jump for joy at having holidays taken off them.
  5. TheDecameron

    TheDecameron Unicorns fart glitter.

    strictly speaking it’s not a sombrero but a homburg
  6. mandryka

    mandryka pfm Member

    Another question. Why will closing schools slow the spread of the virus? I just don't understand, I think I must be missing something obvious. Is it to do with protecting teachers?
  7. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    The graph will peak when enough people have been infected and then recover presumed to have some immunity from future infection or people isolate effectively. The virus cannot then spread so effectively. At the moment one person infects 2 or 3 others so it romps away, get that below 1 person and it will die back. If the population of recoverees can be reinfected it will cycle. It will also cycle if all the people in isolation come out but there's still no vaccine.
    jackbarron likes this.
  8. MVV

    MVV pfm Member

    Testing is just so important. In a way more so to find out who has had it and one hopes has immunity so they can get on with stuff. I've got nowt to do now so if I was lucky enough to get through I would certainly volunteer.
    Covkxw, jackbarron and TheDecameron like this.
  9. twotone

    twotone pfm Member

    Infections of around 15% are being attributed to kids spreading the virus.
    gavreid likes this.
  10. richardg

    richardg Admonishtrator

    Kids going to their grandparents for the weekend?
  11. jackbarron

    jackbarron Chelsea, London

    The science didn't change, according to Richard Horton, the editor of The Lancet. He is a trained doctor/surgeon. (see my post above).

    "What changed is that government advisers at last understood what had really taken place in China."

    gavreid likes this.
  12. MVV

    MVV pfm Member

    That Telegraph graph is really good. Is there a way to track it on line?
  13. Seeker_UK

    Seeker_UK Waiting for the streetcar..

    Lecture 24: patterns of infection See Flint et al, Chapter 16.
  14. Seanm

    Seanm pfm Member

    Sit her down, tell her you love her, and that the world is about to change forever. You're both very fortunate that she has a teaching job: you should have an income over the next year(s).

    This might help, I don't know. I found it chilling.

    Weekender likes this.
  15. DimitryZ

    DimitryZ pfm Member

    This virus IS NEW in rhe human population and we currently don't have any immunity to it.

    In order to get immunity you have to get infected. A bit of a problem there with ~3% mortality.
    Bob McC likes this.
  16. mandryka

    mandryka pfm Member

    So we put measures in place to slow down the infection rate, which enables health services to cope better. But we can't just come out of those measures until we see substantial persistent immunity in the whole population.
  17. mandryka

    mandryka pfm Member

    But haven't they already done it? Haven't they already infected their teachers and their parents and indeed each other?
  18. twotone

    twotone pfm Member

    Aye but there's a lot of kids mate so a lot more to go if they keep schools open, the infection rate will just keep rising but the infection rate from kids will remain the same at 15% so obviously you want that high infection rate to stop or start to drop back so you close the schools and keep people in doors.

    That's what the Imperial team said on Monday, they're advising the government on infection control however their head guy, Ferguson, has himself been infected.
  19. mandryka

    mandryka pfm Member

    It's such a difficult thing to think about. I'm glad I'm not Prime Minister!
  20. Woodface

    Woodface pfm Member

    The two are not mutually exclusive, yes we are lucky & yes she is not happy about potentially losing holidays. My own job is potentially under threat so I am aware how difficult things can become, but, yes, in a lot of ways I am still lucky.
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