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Election night 2019 / aftermath

Discussion in 'off topic' started by Joe Hutch, Dec 12, 2019.

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  1. Tony L

    Tony L Administrator

    I’m sure you are right, but they have made mistakes and their corruption and bogus accounting has been exposed in the past. I still don’t understand how something that is so clearly not a political party in any legitimate sense (no membership, hidden accounts etc) can behave as an election manipulator in a national scale. One can understand an independent such as Lord Buckethead not having to publish full accounts, though IIRC he does at least have a manifesto.
     
    Covkxw likes this.
  2. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    I've had enough - it's making me ill. I'm off to That Pedal Show for the important question of the day - modulation before or after OD...
     
    Joe and bob atherton like this.
  3. Tony L

    Tony L Administrator

    After, obviously!

    PS Haven’t watched it yet, I think I also need a TPS shaped break...
     
    bob atherton likes this.
  4. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    After, for sure - but I guess they're going to say it depends how much gain. Anyway tc.
     
    bob atherton likes this.
  5. KrisW

    KrisW pfm Member

    The argument that Brexit Party allowed Conservatives to steal Labour seats only stands up if you assume that almost all of the Brexit Party votes came from former Labour voters. I really don't think that's a realistic assumption - every other poll this year, as well as the two previous General Elections showed that Brexit Party (or formerly, UKIP) vote gains were matched by almost equal Tory vote losses. The fence dividing the Conservative and Brexit Party camps has always been low, with some of the most hard-line Conservatives actually jumping ship.

    While the Labour party central managment is saying "it was Brexit", the reports from the losing Labour MPs contradict this story, with most saying that voters were simply reluctant to put Jeremy Corbyn into office, and the Conservatives' message of more spending really sounded good to these constituencies, many of which have suffered for years under neglectful Tory governments (the irony isn't lost on me).

    This is the first time in decades that the Tory party has had MPs from so many economically disadvantaged areas in the North and North East. It'll be interesting to see how having such a large presence in the North of England changes their attitude to the English North/South divide.
     
  6. thebiglebowski

    thebiglebowski pfm Member

    By the time that has been exposed and investigated via an inquiry we would be years down the road and their goal has been achieved.

    There's no way you could negate a GE decision or Brexit in 2 years time.

    I think they are pretty much home and dry.
     
  7. Joe P

    Joe P certified Buffologist / mod

    Doctor,

    Imagine what it’s been like for the people who have had to live through that many years of Tory austerity. I’d say you got off lightly if all you’ve had to endure is some voluntary reading.

    Joe
     
    Darmok, kendo, twotone and 4 others like this.
  8. dweezil

    dweezil pfm Member

    If you capitalise final salary scheme pensions I bet you'd get there easily.
     
    Ponty likes this.
  9. Mullardman

    Mullardman Moderately extreme...

    I haven't seen any news since I went to bed a little 'tired and emotional' late last night.

    But I'm thinking this:

    That the great unwashed could understand what Labour was all about.. because they were 'instructed' daily and relentlessly by the media. Yet..somehow, those same voters don't seem to grasp that they have elected a proven lying, cheating racist coward and wannabe dictator.. because.. oddly.. the media omitted to display the same candour in his case.

    The only upside for me is what a rather stunned looking new Tory MP for somewhere 'oop North' said last night. "I'm going down to Westminster to meet Boris and tell him what we need." So, he is either genuine in recognising that 'oop North' has been cruelly neglected for decades and needs Govt support and investment. or he's just going to be seeking more of the mealy mouthed 'Jam Tomorrow' that the Tories have been dishing out for a decade.

    Jeess.. a hard one....
     
  10. ciderglider

    ciderglider pfm Member

    That ship sailed some time ago, so Labour need to figure out some other way to communicate. I thought they were supposed to be social media wizards. But I follow my local Labour candidate on Twitter, and her tweets were getting just a handful of likes.
     
  11. Weekender

    Weekender pfm Member

    Tories to fund spending in their new Ex-Labour seats by transferring local gov't cash out of the northern cities I suspect.
     
  12. Tony L

    Tony L Administrator

    I was working on their taking about 2/3rds Labour, 1/3rd Tory, which I suspect is conservative and I went with it to see if their gamble would pay-out even that close. It appears it does. A lot of the seats that fell were very tight, i.e. just a few hundred votes between Lab and Tory, so if Farage paid to take say 3000 votes out of play he wins easily. Remember these are hard-line poverty-riddled northern seats who usually absolutely hate Tories. Farage/Banks were right to consider Corbyn weak up north, and also right to conclude a lot who hated him would not vote Conservative, so they just bought those votes with their sleazy nationalist propaganda and threw them away. I am certain there was never even the slightest intention to win a seat. The whole thing was electoral fraud by design.
     
  13. TheDecameron

    TheDecameron Unicorns fart glitter.

    No, direct taxation of any value increase at sale. A second stamp duty like the auctioneer’s double jolly -buyer and seller fees
     
  14. Weekender

    Weekender pfm Member

    Corbyn went into the campaign with the lowest net satisfaction ratings of any opposition leader since the late 1970s (Ipsos Mori)
     
  15. Joe Hutch

    Joe Hutch Mate of the bloke

    Wilson fronted a loose coalition of left, right and centre Labour MPs and spent far too much of his time trying to stop the various factions fighting each other. He won only one election with a reasonable majority, and by the end of his leadership the party was already splitting. But if 'things have changed since '97' they have changed even more since '66 or '74.
     
    SteveS1 and Weekender like this.
  16. doctorf

    doctorf left footed right winger

    He's not got the stomach for it.
    He is not a winner.
    and no sense of humour.
     
  17. glancaster

    glancaster In the silicon vale

    Looking at graphs of the opinion polls in the run up to the election, it is striking how obviously the parties were paired, Lib Dems with Labour, and Conservative with Brexit Party. When one member of each pair went up, the other went down: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opini..._Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summaries

    Whilst watching the results come in last night from some of the 'Red Wall' seats, I got a completely different impression: the Labour vote crashed, and the Tory vote stayed the same or increased slightly, but the big boost went to the Brexit Party. The simplest explanation for this is that, in those seats, the Labour voters that migrated mostly went to the Brexit Party. In some cases, this was enough for the Conservatives to win in those seats. Here, the pairing was Labour with the Brexit Party. (There was no other pair here. The Tories were the other entity, and the Lib Dems were nowhere.)

    No doubt other kinds of seat behaved more in line with the overall polling.

    Yes. It's astonishing, but Jeremy Corbyn has even lower personal opinion poll ratings than Boris Johnson. In Scotland.

    My bet would be: not at all. They are just lobby fodder: part of a huge majority that gives Johnson the freedom to do more or less what he wants, when he wants, to whoever he wants. Whatever that is.

    Kind regards

    - Garry
     
    sean99, roman and Weekender like this.
  18. TheDecameron

    TheDecameron Unicorns fart glitter.

    Well, as they used to say at organisational management meetings, “let’s park that”.
     
    Alex S likes this.
  19. HydeLea

    HydeLea pfm Member

    Those who have read my posts on this forum in the past will be well aware of my political thoughts, and I stated here 18 months ago that unless Corbyn sorted out his Brexit stance, he and the Labour party were doomed. He wanted to be a leaver in the working class towns and cities in the Midlands and the north, and a remainer in the south-east. Labour voters have different views on Brexit than the Labour members ........

    This has now come to pass but inspite of my political leaning we need an effective opposition. There are some very capable people in the Labour party such as Keir Starmer, Hilary Benn, Evette Cooper, and the current mayor of London Sadiq Khan and Andy Burnham the Major of Manchester. The party needs to re-group around one of these and quickly else things will go from bad to worse. This must start by routing out the 'Militant Tendancy' and 'Social Worker' nutters in Momentum, many of which are actually running the party. Sooner these types are gone the better the Labour party will be.
     
    JonR, Joe and Weekender like this.
  20. TheDecameron

    TheDecameron Unicorns fart glitter.

    Journalists out in former Labour heartlands today- elderly white voters saying its Brexit and “we didn’t like what we were seeing and hearing with Corbyn”. The tabloids did their work
     
    Jonathan likes this.
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