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The forthcoming demise of the Conservative minority government, May 2017-?

Discussion in 'off topic' started by TheDecameron, Oct 12, 2017.

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  1. merlin

    merlin Avatar changed - Town names deemed offensive.

    Well said Drood.

    Anyone with sense should surely realise that a Labour government committed to delivering Brexit will be better for most than a Conservative/UKIP government committed to Brexit at all cost?.

    There is no third option. To vote for one is to ensure the latter.
    maxflinn and HarryB like this.
  2. HarryB

    HarryB pfm Member

    Spot on. Hopefully Mad Mrs May's Brexit Summit/garden party at Chequers this week will turn into a backstabbing bloodbath and the wretched woman will be forced to call an election.

    Labour will win, the Tories will continue to tear each other's rotten hearts out, membership of their party will continue it's terminal decline and Britain can begin to recover from their spiteful policies and incompetence.

    On the surface we are watching arguments over Brexit. In reality we are witnessing the beginning of the end of the Tory Party.
    maxflinn likes this.
  3. Tony L

    Tony L Administrator

    Maybe so, but it doesn’t stop Labour’s being on the wrong side of the Brexit argument being disastrous. Any dreams/manifesto pledges regarding rebalancing the economy on a more social-democratic/socialist footing etc just won’t be possible in a country losing much of its industry and in obvious decline. If Brexit goes ahead as now expected (i.e. a crash and burn Tory petulance Brexit) then whoever the next government is they will spend their whole term just firefighting economic collapse. All state bills (NHS, infrastructure, huge new border costs etc etc) will increase dramatically due to inflation and import tariffs, much more money will be needed to pay the dole/benefits of those who will have lost their jobs in EU-facing industry etc etc, and all from a vastly reduced tax-take. The balance sheet will be a total mess. Absolutely not the right time to try and hit struggling employers for more tax etc. Labour’s manifesto relies on a strong and credible economy to be implemented, Brexit is obviously a massive impediment to this, yet still they are on entirely the wrong side of the argument.
  4. jackbarron

    jackbarron Chelsea, London

    It is a deal breaker for me Drood, because I don't think Corbyn has been a man of his word. I used to blame broadcasters and the newspapers for how little he seemed to say about Brexit prior to the Referendum. I am sure there is an element of truth in that. However I also see it as a calculated game by Corbyn, given he had been anti-EEC/EU for decades before.

    I used to think Corbyn said immediately after the Referendum we should invoke Article 50, because he knew the process would fracture the Tories and help bring them down. Now I reckon he wanted to get out of the EU asap and to please the Labour supporters who voted for Brexit.

    To limit possible damage it is more important for the UK to stay in the EU, than to have a socialist government after the next general election. Labour can be voted in at another point, but leaving the EU is a one-off.

    It is interesting that Momentum are now going to debate the Leave/Remain issue, given they helped to put the kibosh on the topic at last year's Labour Party Conference.

    Get the impression there are a lot of people like me out there Drood. I'll vote Green, unless a new anti-Brexit party with clout comes along.

    i_should_coco, jtrade and HairyHaggis like this.
  5. ff1d1l

    ff1d1l pfm Member

    But there is. A ratifying referendum.
    You know, this sort of thing.
  6. ff1d1l

    ff1d1l pfm Member

    Yes, all Jack wrote but particularly this ^^^^^
    kendo likes this.
  7. merlin

    merlin Avatar changed - Town names deemed offensive.

    The bloody Brexit card again.

    Vote for the party most likely to be less radical about it. The party committed to giving Parliament a say on any deal. The party who, once in power, just might be persuaded to do the whole thing again. That is not the Tories.

    To give some sense of perspective, even the worst case projections based on a no deal scenario will cost the Country about 25% of the final losses due to the bank bailouts of 2008.

    It is far more important to get a change of government as the alternative is unthinkable.

    ff1d1l, you ask for a second referendum. Whose government is going to give you that? Time for pragmatism over idealism?
    maxflinn likes this.
  8. ff1d1l

    ff1d1l pfm Member

    I happen to think a pause and consider before pressing delete is pretty pragmatic, myself. And democratic, despite how many on here and in government insist it's not. And, I'll be voting with idealism this time.
  9. gassor

    gassor There may be more posts after this.

    I bet you a million quid you don't.

  10. merlin

    merlin Avatar changed - Town names deemed offensive.

    I agree with you. I just think idealism isn't on the table and you have the choice between a plate of pragmatism and a dose of disaster.
  11. gassor

    gassor There may be more posts after this.

    A party that has already rejected free movement of labour, the single market and has proffered some kind of watered down customs union that is probably unacceptable to the EU. Corbyn and co would stand up to the EU the way they have the Tories.
  12. MVV

    MVV pfm Member

    Ha, some appropriate levity in an unusually thought provoking thread. Fingers crossed for a bloodbath at the mad hatters tea party.
  13. HairyHaggis

    HairyHaggis <((((º>`•.¸¸.•´¯`•.¸.•´¯`•...¸><((((º>¸.

    yes, this is where i had gotten to, only some time ago. i think that corbyn is playing politics rather than serving the nation. and i'll be voting snp rather than green but i'd probably vote green if we didn't have snp :)
    kendo and jackbarron like this.
  14. jackbarron

    jackbarron Chelsea, London

    I didn't know that. Do you have a link?

  15. merlin

    merlin Avatar changed - Town names deemed offensive.

    Net cost of bank bail out is £850 billion according to the Bank of England - many put the figure higher.

    Worst case scenario for a hard Brexit is £252 billion over 15 years. The (unlikely) soft Brexit would lose £110 billion over the same period.


    This analysis comes from leaked papers fed to a group campaigning to stop Brexit so are unlikely to be on the conservative side.

    As I say, let's try and look at this with our heads and not our hearts now that we have reached this stage.
    jackbarron likes this.
  16. HarryB

    HarryB pfm Member

    I'd say that's a pretty accurate description. You are Scottish I'd assumed?
  17. HarryB

    HarryB pfm Member

    No need to keep your fingers crossed. Only days away now. It will happen.
  18. Tony L

    Tony L Administrator

    This is all those of us looking for an opposition to a hard crash-out Tory Brexit are doing. This is why, given Labour‘s incomprehensible support for the Tory position, we are forced to vote for whichever of the true progressive parties stand the best chance in our seats and argue forcefully against the Tory/Labour/UKIP position. Those who exist within the Labour supporter, member, Momentum, trade unions or whatever network should use whatever influence they have to change the party’s position to a more rational one.
  19. droodzilla

    droodzilla pfm Member

    The damage is already happening. Every day under the Tories, people are dying unnecessarily because of underinvestment in the NHS, people are being driven to destitution, mental illness and suicide because of a sadistic attitiude to benefit payments and sanctions and the life chances of children from poorer backgrounds are being eroded by underinvestment in education and social housing. You yourself have commented on the cuts to drug rehabilitation services under the Tories - I'm sure you have a better idea than I have what happens to the people who lose those services. None of these people can wait for a Labour government - they need it at the first opportunity.

    It's true that a Labour government *could* be voted in later but I doubt it will be as committed to rebalancing the economy for the vast majority of people as the current Labour Party. The knives have been out for Corbyn from day one and I'm certain that if Labour lose the election it will be used as a weapon to discredit not just Corbyn but the very idea of a progressive Labour Party. I doubt we'll have another shot at electing a truly social-democratic Labour government for twenty years. Conversely, it's not true that leaving the EU is a one off; we could rejoin (probably on inferior terms than now) in 10-20 years and I'll be surprised if we don't.

    It's vitally important to realise the UK *won't* go into economic meltdown if we leave the EU. A future Labour government will have less money to play with than it would have had if we'd stayed, but the UK will remain a wealthy nation that can easily afford good healthcare, education and housing for all its citizens - *if* a progressive Labour government is in power.

    You may or may not be right about Corbyn's motives but I urge you to set aside any feelings of personal betrayal you have and continue to support Labour. Many people in the country desperately need help and, IIRC, you live in one of the few constituencies where your vote could make a huge difference.
    maxflinn likes this.
  20. Tony L

    Tony L Administrator

    I’d not be anything like so confident! The financial collapse of 2008 left the nation hugely damaged with very little structural resilience. This is why we have been flat-lining on the cusp of recession ever since. Interest rates are already at close to 0% and our banks remain over-leveraged. Basically most of the tricks used to keep the wheels on last time can’t be used again as there are no interest rates left to cut. Add to that all the problems and increased costs of border tariffs, loss of industry, inflation, job losses, the loss of much of the London financial serices industry etc etc will bring. We are currently just 0.3% away from a recession, we have no answers to the fantasy NI border, we have nothing to offer our large EU-facing industries etc. It really would not take too much of a diwnturn to swing the banks into a precariously negative position and Stirling itself may be at risk (it cost £bns to save it from collapse in 2008, a price we are still paying).

    As a random example just think of how a hard-Tory/Corbyn Brexit will impact say the NHS with regards to procurement etc? The additional costs of medicine, equipment, staffing etc will add huge amounts to the running costs just to tread water. The NHS needs additional investment of £bns as-is, we shouldn’t be wasting any of that on paying more for core supplies. Same logic applies to everything else too!
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