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UK Election 2015

Discussion in 'off topic' started by Rasher, Mar 5, 2015.

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  1. Tony L

    Tony L Administrator

  2. Brian

    Brian Eating fat, staying slim

    Thought I heard someone in the QT audience last week refer to him as Michael.
     
  3. KC Cantiaci

    KC Cantiaci pfm Member

    Different when the crisis hit and income went down. This is the problem.... average Joe could afford his mortgage plus additional finance for the new car, TV, holiday etc when he was getting overtime and bonuses but couldn't when he went back to normal hours/income. So it's not telling us much that it's all affordable when everything is rosy.

    Labours management of the economy and spending commitments weren't costed the last time around and I have no faith or trust now when there's debate as to what they signed up to as regards deficit reduction. Some believe they signed up to reducing the deficit within 3 years, Labour say they didn't and agree to reduce it by the end of the parliament (based on the 'current' budget) and the Treasury say they won't be able to with their plans and we will still be in the deficit by 2020 (£39bn odd??)....but Labour are saying that'll be infrastructure investment so is acceptable?? So when whatever happens, Labour will be criticised for not hitting 'the' target and they'll respond by saying they didn't agree to that particular target and on we go again......he said, she said.......it's just words.
     
  4. notaclue

    notaclue pfm Member

  5. matthewr

    matthewr spɹɐʍʞɔɐq spɹoɔǝɹ ɹnoʎ sʎɐld

    I am not sure what you are saying. You seem to be conflating personal debt and government debt.

    I really do wish if people would learn only one thing from the last seven (7!) years is that obsessing about the deficit is the problem not the solution. To put it as simply as I can, if you reduce the deficit the economy gets worse, but if you improve the economy the deficit will get better.
     
  6. Mick P

    Mick P Retired and content

    Matthew

    No one really believes you.

    Mrs Merkel doesn't agree with you,

    Gideon doesn't agree with you

    Nick Clegg doesn't agree with you

    Even Ed Balls doesn't agree with you.

    Mind you it's not all bad, Jack Barron agrees with you.

    Regards

    Mick

    PS I don't agree with you either but you knew that anyway.
     
  7. sean99

    sean99 pfm Member

  8. TheDecameron

    TheDecameron Unicorns fart glitter.

    I could see a Cohen Bros film, "Inside Michael Green" about a shabby, small time internet crook who goes into politics and hooks up with fellow travellers before getting in over his head.
     
  9. jackbarron

    jackbarron Chelsea, London

  10. jackbarron

    jackbarron Chelsea, London

    I am going to vote Green, because I am a socialist worried about climate change and the wholesale destruction of forests leading to the end of the world.

    Jack
     
  11. Arkless Electronics

    Arkless Electronics Trade: Amp design and repairs.

    As it seems unlikely that there will be more than a small handful of seats in Scotland held by any one other than the SNP, it strikes me as hypocritical to complain of Scottish MPs having such power over the whole UK in a possible coalition.... after all, a country represented almost completely by Nationalist Scottish MPs would be a junior partner governed by Westminster's English-centric parties with no seats in Scotland!
     
  12. KC Cantiaci

    KC Cantiaci pfm Member

    I'm not, I'm just pointing out that stating how spending, or overspending, within acceptable limits whilst in a boom isn't the whole story. By pushing the limits to what a person, company or government can afford in a boom period when income is high isn't prudent because once you have committed to such spending, if the inevitable fall in income comes, you're a bit buggered.

    If it's not so important, why do people, and I believe you too have commented on this, raise the point that the ConDems have added more to the national debt than Labour? The rising debt is a by product of operating with a continual deficit. The rising debt then creates rising interest payments that add to the cost of operating the country....and becoming significant. People are complaining about not enough money being spent on various services and Labour are talking of raising £2.5bn from their mansion tax to go towards the NHS (that isn't enough btw) yet we spend, or will be, £60bn a year on interest.....and rising. The problem I have with this is that it's easy to dismiss these levels of deficit and debt as history shows we've had higher levels in the past so therefore, it can't be a problem. But that assumes we'll have something similar in the way of growth etc in the future....and that's not assured.
     
  13. Darth Vader

    Darth Vader From the Dark Side

    Mmmmm 71% of the worlds surface is covered in water and there are a hellava lot of plants growing down there.

    So maybe not?

    Anywho it'll take an awful lot of time and don't fergit that when the forests go plants for food are grown and they then put oxy back into the air.

    Cheers,

    DV
     
  14. Colin L

    Colin L pfm Member

    Well Matthew I agree with you, because we are both economically literate unlike Mick who is a Daily Mail stereotype.

    Politicians generally know sweet FA about economics, spout platitudes to keep their paymasters happy, and make decisions based on doctrine not logic, hence 5 years of completely useless and economically ineffective austerity
     
  15. Tigerjones

    Tigerjones Bagpuss

    I wouldn't be so sure. He presents his argument very well and simply. Seems to me he actually knows what he's talking about. It's a pleasant relief from the constant ramblings from those who don't seem to have much of an idea.

    People of pfm, join me in believing Matthew. I believe.
     
  16. Colin L

    Colin L pfm Member

    From mainlymacro.... unbiased economic analysis written in plain English so that even the simple-minded can understand (so long as they put aside their prejudices).

    The idea that the Coalition rescued Britain from a crisis is routinely put forward as fact by both the Conservatives and Nick Clegg. Every time the media let such statements pass (as they invariably do), the language seems to get more florid: Clegg’s latest is that the coalition was born in the “midst of an economic firestorm”. [1]

    The facts say this is pure nonsense. The economy had begun to recover from the recession, and this recovery might have continued if it had not been hit on the head by domestic and Eurozone austerity. As Larry Elliott makes clear (see also here), there was no sign of any market panic, either in the markets for Sterling or government debt.

    But the government’s budget deficit was very large, and debt as a proportion of GDP was therefore growing. If, through a separate myth, you have created the idea that the major (perhaps only) goal of aggregate fiscal policy is to reduce deficits, this seems like a serious problem. But the deficit was rising because of the recession. It always does rise in a recession and fall in a boom, as the chart below shows. It was particularly high in 2010 because this recession was particularly deep.

    [​IMG]
    Any economist would cringe at the idea that policy should try and eliminate deficits and surpluses created by the economic cycle, because that would mean destabilising the economy. This is sufficiently well known (cyclical deficits and surplus are called ‘the automatic stabiliser’) that it could undermine the idea that the high deficit was an immediate problem. This is one reason why it is important to push another mediamacro myth - the idea of Labour profligacy, which we debunk tomorrow. [2]

    So where is the half-truth that gives the ‘firestorm’ myth some credence? It is of course the Eurozone crisis, and the idea that the UK could suffer a similar fate to the Eurozone periphery. But academic macroeconomists understand that the situation of a country with its own central bank, like the UK, is quite different from a country without, because the central bank can (and in the UK will) act as a lender of last resort, so the government will never ‘run out of money’. That simple fact is sufficient to prevent any crisis happening for an economy like the UK. Greece was profligate, and had to default, but the crisis in the rest of the Eurozone ended the moment the European Central Bank agreed to act as a lender of last resort in 2012.

    Why is it so important to keep up the pretence that in 2010 the UK economy was ‘on the brink’ of a financial crisis? Because only then can the pain of the subsequent few years be excused. The truth is that the failure to recover until 2013 was not the inevitable cost of rescuing the economy from crisis, but an avoidable choice by the Coalition government. The delayed recovery, and the damage that did to living standards, was at least in part a direct consequence of attempts to reduce the deficit far too early, and there was no impending crisis that forced the government's hand. [3]
     
  17. Steven Toy

    Steven Toy L3 Toy

    Genuine Keynsian economics seeks to mitigate not eliminate the effects of boom and bust; you create a budget surplus during the boom and borrow during the bust, usually to invest in capital infrastructure projects that also require a significant labour force.

    This investment precipitates the economy back to the boom part of the cycle with enduring benefits that create an upward economic trend that rises through the boom-bust cycle.

    In the boom period the budget surplus then reduces the overall debt which, coupled with a reasonable level of inflation wipes out the debt.

    Unfortunately Brown's version of Keynsian economics was to borrow during the boom (on the basis that he thought he'd ended the cycle) and have to borrow even more during the bust.

    And "there is no more money left" was the legacy to the current coalition...
     
  18. Greg

    Greg 2t5b

    just compare Gideon 2010-2012 vs 2012-2015. The evidence is there if evidence is what shapes your opinions on things.
     
  19. Steven Toy

    Steven Toy L3 Toy

    I think Osborne did make some tweaks to the austerity plan when he realised that it wasn't working given a number of outside factors. Credit to him is due for such pragmatism overiding ideology.

    It is now working and a reintroduction of a more profligate approach is only going to undermine progress now taking place.
     
  20. Greg

    Greg 2t5b

    banks
     
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