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What happens after Coronavirus?

Discussion in 'off topic' started by AndyU, Mar 21, 2020.

  1. Ponty

    Ponty pfm Member

    I remember after 9/11 everyone said people would stop flying. People have very short memories.

    It was the same after 7/7. Look at the tubes now (well, maybe not right now).
     
    Weekender likes this.
  2. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    I've not been to the US since ;)
     
    Ponty likes this.
  3. matt j

    matt j pfm Member

    The Tories and all their mates will want things back to normal ASAP so assume the pocket filling shenanigans will recommence first chance they get.

    The game is too rigged for them to allow it to change too drastically.
     
    Covkxw likes this.
  4. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    Spanish flu took 2-3 years to go through the population. We need a vaccine as soon as possible, or at the very least some helpful treatments.

    This graph shows the aftermath of WWI as interest payments as a function of GDP. After WWII the UK essentially surrendered what was left of the empire and still owed a shed load. We're not at those levels yet, there's still plenty of room for government to address this, especially at near zero interest rates

    [​IMG]
     
    Weekender and Roger Adams like this.
  5. sean99

    sean99 pfm Member

    I think there must be more than a few younger workers who have lost their jobs in this wondering why - again - the young appear to be making the bulk of the sacrifice in order to save the old. Plus, as you say, any national debt accrued during this time will have to be dealt with (via taxes or depreciating currency) by the young workers. It is unfortunate that we entered this crisis in a society that was already so stacked against young workers.
     
    AndyU likes this.
  6. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    I think that's exactly what they're saying, and I think it's hugely mistaken looking at the number of youngsters in hospital in Italy.
     
  7. Rug Doc

    Rug Doc pfm Member

    I’m hoping as the virus runs it’s course and we are starting to get back on track that the climate change noted from the space station is given plenty of TV time - it’s incredible how much less pollution we are producing, they might have actually seen a sunrise in some parts of China over the last few weeks!

    https://www.sciencealert.com/here-s-what-covid-19-is-doing-to-our-pollution-levels

    There is even speculation that the number of lives saved due to lowered air pollution actually might outweigh the lives lost to CV19. Which is mind boggling as deaths from air pollution happen every year, yet we as a planet basically don’t seem to give a shit.

    China -



    Italy -



    it’s a global wake up call to look after each other and hopefully the planet too...

    My biggest worry is that we all get better and just go back and switch back on those 5 million factories and **** everything back up again.
     
    sean99, kendo, mhv and 6 others like this.
  8. russel

    russel ./_dazed_and_confused

    hopefully it will focus minds even more on global warming, pollution contributes to global dimming which is equivalent to 0.3-0.7C, this will mean a step change of that amount as industry shuts down, this was noticed after 911 in practice.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_dimming
     
  9. Roger Adams

    Roger Adams pfm Member

    This will be nothing like 7/11 or 7/7. I'm not sure some people quite get what is going on now we have gone down this route globally.

    People, even on mainline news channels, are seemingly shocked by the initial impact of the fallout.

    I will keep most of my own feelings to myself and have removed earlier posts that might have delved too deep :) I will share if requested but will keep quiet if that's the preferred option.

    I will say this however. At 56, if someone asked me to give up my life to preserve the futures and prospects of my children and grandchildren, I would do it tomorrow. Simply offer me painless voluntary euthanasia. I would make that sacrifice.

    Instead, I'm forced to live through the pain of seeing their lives destroyed with no option offered to me to save them.
     
    cpg and gavreid like this.
  10. Nigel

    Nigel pfm Member

    Please share, Roger.
     
  11. Thorn

    Thorn pfm Member

    If it lasts any appreciable time it'll make the gulf between the Rees-Moggs of this world and the rest of us so clear that even the Daily Mail won't be able to ignore it.
     
  12. Bart

    Bart pfm Member

    Sadly I think, if we ever come out the other end of this there will be a frantic effort to get things back to how they were before it all started. We have invented money and we like it!
     
    matt j likes this.
  13. Roger Adams

    Roger Adams pfm Member

    At the end of the day, money represents something of value. You can sell that something to someone else or you can leverage against it. No one can invent money though. Buy today. Pay tomorrow.

    We are buying at the moment. We are buying a lot. There will be huge amounts to pay back. Over a very long period of time.
     
  14. Tony L

    Tony L Administrator

    Assuming a vaccine arrives things will recover for those who are lucky enough to survive regardless of their age. Economically it is bad, but it will be no worse than WWI, WWII etc. I would hope we’ll see some improvements and forward-thinking in healthcare, but I really think those on the fringes hoping for socialism/communism or whatever are going to be somewhat disappointed. As ever those with ideas and products people want to buy will prosper, those that don’t won’t. Nothing will change. The stock market is smoke and mirrors, it always has been. It will recover and some will no doubt get very rich/poor in the process. After all this is done the basic rules of demand and supply will still exist, even if there is a bit of a reshuffle as to who makes what. It could be a long while until we get there though.

    PS I remain somewhat confused by the economic growth that resulted directly after WWII. The UK quickly reached its technological and manufacturing peak leading the world in so many fields, as did the USA.
     
  15. gintonic

    gintonic 50 shades of grey pussy cats

    yes for cv19, but when it mutates to CV20 we start all over again.....
     
  16. Arkless Electronics

    Arkless Electronics Trade: Amp design and repairs.

    Seems pretty obvious to me! All sorts of new technology and manufacturing methods had been developed for military use which were suddenly able to be put to peacetime, profit making use.
     
  17. Tony L

    Tony L Administrator

    Maybe true, depending on how/if it mutates, but I’m prepared to bet many decades worth of finance has been flung at virology and epidemiology in just the past month the world over so hopefully we’ll get to learn a lot of stuff we did not know about these things. No one would have got to the moon without the cold war. Science only gets properly funded when there is a real motive and pressure for results.
     
  18. russel

    russel ./_dazed_and_confused

    yep, suddenly advertising which is the art of persuading people to buy stuff you don’t need with money you don’t have is reduced to its rightful irrelevance.

    edit: just until they find an effective vaccine in which case it’s back to operation shitehawk.
     
    vuk and TheDecameron like this.
  19. TheDecameron

    TheDecameron Unicorns fart glitter.

    We’ve been on rough seven year intervals with the occurrence of this group of viruses. No doubt there’s going to be antigenic drift as it passes through n billion hosts, and comes out with a new hybrid recipe next year and so on but we can catch up with vaccines. The greater threat is the likelihood of new entities crossing the species barrier like this one. That and the relentless increase in human population density.
     
    Roger Adams likes this.
  20. Roger Adams

    Roger Adams pfm Member

    Can we please just shed a little light on a couple of talking points, for the sake of context so that people appreciate this? The two most recent major outbreaks of Corona Virus were Ebola. In 2012 and 2014 if I recall. I may be wrong (as ever).
    We can, and must, certainly hope for a vaccine, and then we can hope for one that is readily available and affordable. The first epidemic of the Ebola virus however was eight years ago. The R0 rate for Ebola was not dissimilar to that of COVED19 - that means it spread similarly. In December of last year I believe, a vaccine was finally available. There's a fine balance I agree between optimism and pragmatism. I'm more the (maybe overly) pragmatic kind of guy :) Sorry for that.

    The other is, as has been reiterated by health professionals time and time again, almost all of us will get infected and survive this with little or no health affects at all, many will not even know they've had it. People will be really unlucky to get a severe viral infection that causes hospitalisation or worse. I fully agree that numbers are, for many, still shockingly high. The same with Cancer or dementia - both horrible deaths.

    I personally think we need to look at what is happening to almost all of us now, how that is going to impact our lives long term and how it is going to shape the opportunities and quality of life available to our offspring. A horrible horrible dilemma for anyone in power to have to face right now. To balance priorities properly.

    On another thread of thought, if only Andrew Cuomo was POTUS. He's both pragmatic and efficient.
     

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