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What happens after Coronavirus?

Discussion in 'off topic' started by AndyU, Mar 21, 2020.

  1. JensenHealey

    JensenHealey pfm Member

    As I said to my daughters earlier today....’who gives a f*** what the Kardashians are doing now’. This crisis shows up the hot air and p*** that is Instagram.
  2. MVV

    MVV pfm Member

    Well praps but lets hope the key lesson has been learned. If Dr Li had been listened to in November 2019 and relatively minor measures taken we would not be here.
  3. Tony L

    Tony L Administrator

    Ebola is not a Corona virus. Ebola, a truly terrifying disease that is far less infectious than Covid 19 but far more lethal to those that catch it, posed little if any threat to the 1st world & big business. Even so a vaccine was still developed and is now available. Covid 19 has brought the whole world economy crashing to its knees. There will be infinitely more high-budget science working on this the world over right now. This is a good thing as that science will no doubt lead to other knowledge and understanding.
  4. Roger Adams

    Roger Adams pfm Member

    Tony, I agree wholeheartedly (although the two are both pretty close in terms of infectiousness).

    I used the term because everyone I've spoken to associates the term with a virus spread from an animal to a human in a China. Obviously Ebola was also transferred originally from an animal in the same way. Coronaviruses are zoonotic - just as ebola is.

    Your point about the benefits of learning is also very true. Let us hope we all learn a little from these times.

    As you say, flawed attempts to stop it have brought the global economy to breaking point in a few months. We can't stop it now. How do we save at the same time, both our way of life and as many lives as possible Tony?

    After this wave subsides we will all have to seriously ramp up our healthcare facilities to cope with future waves. This is will be at huge cost. How can we afford to do that if the whole nation is left bankrupt from the last wave?
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2020
  5. sq225917

    sq225917 Bit of this, bit of that

    I'm just guessing, but well all be pulling together while were in it and then itll be swung around back to xenophobia and kicking society's underdogs once more. Because those in power are greedy divisive cnuts and the system is broken.

    We need real representation, proportional representation in politics, no lifetime pensions for mps and their salaries approved by the public.
    sean99, Snufkin and mega lord like this.
  6. wacko

    wacko pfm Member

    IMO It won't be over in a few more weeks, nor is it a '4 week hiccup'. Unless you mean months. Some countries have just started.
    In Italy it started 7 weeks ago and is getting worse every day. There is no 'after Covid 19' for so many.
    Apart from the handful of Asian countries that have controlled it Covid 19 looks like a disaster on WW2 scale overall but different countries affected more/less this time.
    Trying not to contribute as I am quite pessimistic.
  7. pete the bus

    pete the bus pfm Member

    Arkless Electronics likes this.
  8. richardg

    richardg Admonishtrator

    the streets of germany and france are totally empty, nothing is open. noone is going out. how can it spread when this is going on?
  9. Roger Adams

    Roger Adams pfm Member

    From what is available it seems we have a straight choice after this particular strain of virus has reduced its activity.

    We can change the way we interact with each other, how we physically travel and how we treat the planet (through regulatory changes). Alternatively, we can ramp up healthcare and research spending to previously inconceivable levels.

    Ideally we do both. The latter is obviously only available if we have a strong enough economy which cannot happen reacting as we are to the current situation.
    mega lord likes this.
  10. George J

    George J Herefordshire member

    How this current crisis effects cultural behaviour in the long run depends on how long it lasts and how terrible the morbidity is.

    If the worst is over by the summer's end, then we will soon revert to something like our current normal - no profound lessons learned. In that scenario the total morbidity might well be very much less serious than could easily occur, and many businesses in the service sector will resurface.

    But if it goes on for twelve or eighteen months, perhaps until mass vaccination is achievable, then it is anybody's guess how profound the changes in behaviour, culture, and financial conditions will be.

    I wonder how many would cope well with a 1930s style Depression, with public money simply not there to implement even current levels of support for the poorest in society, let alone attempt to build more resilience in the public services, including health and care for the elderly. The idea that it is going to be over in two or three months seems very unlikely to me.

    From the behaviour of people in some absurd cases so far, I do not think that enough people in the UK are taking this nearly seriously enough. On the other hand I think the selfish minority probably cannot be legally beaten into submission with Draconian laws, the police or even Martial law.

    It is a difficult balance: Shaming the irresponsible into safer behaviour quickly, or causing a general civil unrest. I live in a remote place with a small population, but ultimately our large cities could easily become powder kegs if people realise that nothing can be done for the well-being of the population and they have nothing to lose through civil unrest. The Italians seem to have completely avoided this, but I am not so sure that we can avoid it in the worse possible scenarios in the UK.

    If general civil unrest were to occur then predicting what comes afterwards is a question nobody can begin to answer.

    Sorry for the pessimism. George
    Roger Adams likes this.
  11. wacko

    wacko pfm Member

    There can't be absolutely no-one. Food is still getting bought in supermarkets and distributed.
    Restaurants are still making delivery food.
    Essential services are running.
    People are meeting.
    It is remarkably contagious.
    Only China and South Korea have done it. I hope Italy improves soon.
  12. TheDecameron

    TheDecameron Unicorns fart glitter.

    There’s another way of course- that international cooperation on research, disease surveillance and public health response is built up and not wilfully undermined. This of course requires global investment and above all political will. You don’t have to search too far to find the national leaders who gave WHO the tin ear or in fact dismantled their own strategic body responsible for viral pandemic detection and response.
    Ultimately, unchecked human population growth and the roulette wheel of viral genomics mean there will be more outbreaks. Next time the impressive transmission efficiency might be matched by impressive lethality.
    Roger Adams and SteveS1 like this.
  13. MikeMA

    MikeMA pfm Member

    I hope I'm wrong but I wouldn't mind betting that apart from some marginal changes to business and government contingency planning, which most of us won't even notice or be aware of, for most of us things will revert pretty much to what they were pre CV, though it may take a while, and most of us will be poorer.
  14. davidsrsb

    davidsrsb pfm Member

    I read somewhere that there were concerns that this virus might affect male fertility. It's too early to see what the consequences of a "mild" infection are
  15. Bob McC

    Bob McC Living the life of Riley

    the death rate of Ebola is between 45% - 90%.
    There is a vaccine, nevertheless there is an ongoing outbreak in Africa.
    The DRC and Uganda have been fighting it since 2018.

  16. Bananahead

    Bananahead pfm Member

  17. Roger Adams

    Roger Adams pfm Member

    Hi Bob. We were just referring to the time taken to develop a vaccine and the potential to spread that both diseases exhibit. You can see below the figures of a few that a re reasonably close including of course the two that I was talking about. (BTW, the lower the figure the better)

  18. Tony L

    Tony L Administrator

    I take it you don’t understand the difference between ‘airborne droplet’ and ‘bodily fluid’?

    FWIW I think you are right off the map of rationality with the comparisons and political agendas you are trying so hard to force into this debate.

    PS Do you still think we are dealing with “flu” here as so many of your early posts suggested (I obviously deleted them as they were so misguided and dangerous).
  19. NeilR

    NeilR pfm Member

    it was supposed to be less dangerous than flu IIRC.
  20. Roger Adams

    Roger Adams pfm Member

    No I do understand the difference, of course I do.

    I am merely stating the rate of transmission from carrier to anyone exposed (in whatever way) as indicated by the official WHO figures. This was simply a reply to the discussion about the length of time it took to find an Ebola vaccine. Nothing more. A comparison with Ebola transmission. I was just trying to point out the time scale involved. Trying to put into context the hopes of 12 weeks.

    What you choose to do with those and how you interpret them, is entirely down to you Tony. I will not offer up my personal solution as it comes from someone with, potentially, a different mind set and someone who has no desire to offend or upset some.

    I will just give you the figures and you can make up your own mind. I hope that is OK?I make absolutely no judgement whatsoever. It is for others to personally make their own minds up. All anyone can do is to proffer up facts.

    As I say, the comparison was only ever offered up to demonstrate the time it took the world's pharmaceutical industry to find a reliable vaccine. To give some sense of timing in light of comments from the likes of Trump and Johnson and the actions being taken at this time.

    I think this may have been mentioned before but do have a read, it's a fascinatingly insightful paper IMHO.https://www.cambridgescholars.com/download/sample/65716.

    I understand the idea behind the isolation (preventing asymptomatic carriers from unknowingly transmitting to many), but we need to understand that, in this day of international business, travel and communications, things move so quickly that issues persist. China for instance is seeing the beginnings of a second wave. This will be down to others bringing it in whilst being asymptomatic - hence my earlier post about needing to change our whole way of life going forward or face other changes.

    We'll have to see how effective the shut down is. It WILL limit the transmission in the short term - no one would ever argue with that. The question is - at what cost in the long term?

    I asked you this earlier Tony,
    Do you have a solution in mind at all out of interest?
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2020

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